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NBA β€’ Today's Games

Model Picks

Live simulation results from Dr Cover's NBA model. Each game runs through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to generate win probabilities, projected scores, and edge calculations against major sportsbooks.

πŸ“Š Model Performance | πŸ“ˆ Player Stats Performance |πŸ“„ NBA Model Notes

⚠️ Important Disclosure

These predictions are for entertainment purposes only and are not guaranteed to be profitable. Our models have known limitations, and we are continuously working to improve accuracy over time. Each model version will have its own strengths and weaknesses. Please review the Model Performance links above to understand current accuracy rates and check back regularly for updates.

Data: Live
Last run: 2026-03-01 16:41 ET
Games: 5
SAS @ NYK
1:00 PM ET
SAS Win%
45.5%
NYK Win%
54.6%
Proj Score
113.9 - 117.2
Model Spread
NYK -3.3
Model Total
231.1
βœ…
Trend Strength
SAS Model Pick: 80% SU
Model accurate when picking SAS
βœ…
Trend Strength
NYK Model Pick: 69% SU
Model accurate when picking NYK
Book SAS ML Edge NYK ML Edge Spread
DraftKings β€” β€” β€” β€” β€”
FanDuel β€” β€” β€” β€” β€”
BetMGM β€” β€” β€” β€” β€”
ESPN Bet β€” β€” β€” β€” β€”
DraftKings
O β€” | U β€”
FanDuel
O β€” | U β€”
BetMGM
O β€” | U β€”
ESPN Bet
O β€” | U β€”
SAS Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 20-5 (80.0%)
  • Overall SU: 40-15 (72.7%)
  • Away SU: 21-9 (70.0%)
NYK Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 29-13 (69.0%)
  • Home SU: 22-8 (73.3%)
  • Overall SU: 38-21 (64.4%)
  • Home ATS: 18-10 (64.3%)
SAS
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
De'Aaron Fox S 40.8 20.9 4.9 8.0 2.5 1.68 0.39
Devin Vassell S 39.5 15.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 1.04 0.52
Stephon Castle S 38.3 18.3 6.4 8.8 1.3 1.68 0.39
Victor Wembanyama S 37.4 26.1 14.5 3.8 2.2 1.30 3.63
Julian Champagnie S 36.0 12.6 7.5 1.9 3.2 1.04 0.52
Harrison Barnes 9.8 4.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.26 0.07
Dylan Harper 8.0 5.0 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.33 0.11
Keldon Johnson 8.5 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.22 0.04
Luke Kornet 8.0 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.18 0.44
Carter Bryant 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.07 0.07
Kelly Olynyk 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.15 0.00
Bismack Biyombo 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.11 0.04
Jordan McLaughlin 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.00
Lindy Waters III 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.04 0.00
NYK
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jalen Brunson S 40.7 26.8 4.0 7.2 3.4 0.83 0.12
Mikal Bridges S 40.0 15.7 4.8 4.7 2.5 1.77 0.94
OG Anunoby S 38.9 16.3 6.3 2.7 2.4 2.01 0.83
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36.8 20.0 13.8 3.3 1.9 1.06 0.71
Josh Hart S 35.6 11.9 8.7 6.1 1.8 1.30 0.35
Jose Alvarado 7.9 3.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.37 0.04
Landry Shamet 8.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.18 0.07
Jordan Clarkson 6.7 3.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.15 0.07
Mitchell Robinson 7.2 2.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.30 0.44
Jeremy Sochan 4.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.11 0.07
Tyler Kolek 4.7 2.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.15 0.04
Ariel Hukporti 3.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.07 0.18
Kevin McCullar Jr. 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.15 0.00
Mohamed Diawara 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.07 0.04
CLE @ BKN
3:30 PM ET
CLE Win%
53.6%
BKN Win%
46.4%
Proj Score
117.1 - 114.9
Model Spread
BKN +2.2
Model Total
232.1
Best Edge
BKN ML (+525)
+30.4%
BETMGM
βœ…
Trend Strength
CLE Model Pick: 65% SU
Model accurate when picking CLE
⚠️
Caution
BKN as Dog: 22% SU
Rarely upsets as underdog
Book CLE ML Edge BKN ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -810 -35.4% +500 +29.8% +10.5
FanDuel -770 -34.9% +470 +28.9% +11.5
BetMGM -900 -36.4% +525 +30.4% +11.5
ESPN Bet -700 -33.9% +425 +27.4% +10.5
DraftKings
217.5
O 69.9% | U 30.1%
FanDuel
218.5
O 68.6% | U 31.4%
BetMGM
216.5
O 71.4% | U 28.6%
ESPN Bet
217.5
O 69.9% | U 30.1%
CLE Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 26-14 (65.0%)
  • As Fav SU: 32-16 (66.7%)
  • Model Pick ATS: 13-27 (32.5%)
  • Overall SU: 36-24 (60.0%)
  • As Fav ATS: 19-29 (39.6%)
BKN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 5-5 (50.0%)
  • As Dog SU: 11-38 (22.4%)
  • Overall SU: 15-40 (27.3%)
  • Home SU: 8-20 (28.6%)
CLE
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
James Harden S 45.2 27.0 6.2 10.5 3.9 1.55 0.52
Evan Mobley S 42.4 19.5 11.3 4.9 1.6 1.17 2.46
Jarrett Allen S 35.6 16.8 11.1 2.6 0.0 1.30 1.17
Jaylon Tyson S 35.6 14.9 7.0 2.8 2.6 1.17 0.52
Sam Merrill S 33.2 14.5 3.0 2.8 4.4 0.78 0.13
Dennis SchrΓΆder 10.3 5.4 1.2 2.1 0.5 0.36 0.08
Craig Porter Jr. 7.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.40 0.24
Keon Ellis 7.3 2.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.48 0.24
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 6.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.28 0.24
Larry Nance Jr. 5.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.24 0.04
Thomas Bryant 4.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.08 0.16
Tyrese Proctor 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.16 0.00
Tristan Enaruna 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.00 0.00
Darius Brown 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00
BKN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Michael Porter Jr. S 49.5 31.6 10.7 4.9 5.2 1.52 0.30
Noah Clowney S 42.8 16.6 6.4 2.6 3.2 1.22 1.07
Terance Mann S 37.6 9.8 4.7 4.9 1.4 1.07 0.30
Nolan Traore S 33.8 10.4 2.4 5.6 1.4 1.07 0.61
Day'Ron Sharpe S 28.2 11.0 10.2 3.5 0.2 1.67 0.61
Danny Wolf 8.5 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.25 0.21
Ziaire Williams 9.4 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.50 0.21
Ben Saraf 7.1 2.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.29 0.08
Jalen Wilson 5.9 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.17 0.04
Josh Minott 6.5 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.29 0.13
Ochai Agbaji 6.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.17 0.13
Grant Nelson 4.1 1.6 0.8 1.7 0.0 0.00 0.84
MIL @ CHI
3:30 PM ET
MIL Win%
49.4%
CHI Win%
50.6%
Proj Score
115.4 - 116.3
Model Spread
CHI -0.9
Model Total
231.7
Best Edge
CHI ML (+600)
+36.4%
DRAFTKINGS
Book MIL ML Edge CHI ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -1050 -41.9% +600 +36.4% +11.5
FanDuel -670 -37.7% +430 +31.8% +10.5
BetMGM -900 -40.6% +525 +34.6% +10.5
ESPN Bet -1200 -43% +600 +36.4% +12.5
DraftKings
228.5
O 54% | U 46%
FanDuel
231.5
O 49.6% | U 50.4%
BetMGM
231.5
O 49.6% | U 50.4%
ESPN Bet
230.5
O 50.9% | U 49.1%
MIL Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 16-18 (47.1%)
  • Away O/U: Over 9-18 (33.3%)
  • Overall O/U: Over 20-30 (40.0%)
  • As Fav ATS: 7-13 (35.0%)
  • As Fav Model O/U: 7-12 (36.8%)
  • Away SU: 12-18 (40.0%)
CHI Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 10-14 (41.7%)
  • As Dog SU: 13-21 (38.2%)
  • Model Pick ATS: 9-15 (37.5%)
  • Home O/U: Over 11-17 (39.3%)
MIL
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Kevin Porter Jr. S 42.8 19.6 6.7 9.7 1.7 2.82 0.64
Ryan Rollins S 41.0 18.6 5.9 6.9 3.2 1.92 0.51
AJ Green S 38.5 11.2 3.3 2.6 3.8 0.64 0.13
Myles Turner S 35.8 13.8 7.2 2.0 2.8 0.90 2.05
Kyle Kuzma S 33.9 14.1 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.77 0.51
Bobby Portis 8.9 5.4 2.4 0.6 0.7 0.22 0.07
Cam Thomas 8.5 5.3 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.04 0.04
Gary Trent Jr. 8.3 3.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.19 0.04
Jericho Sims 6.2 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.07 0.11
Gary Harris 5.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.22 0.07
Ousmane Dieng 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.07 0.11
Pete Nance 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.11 0.07
Andre Jackson Jr. 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.11 0.04
CHI
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Josh Giddey S 48.1 23.3 12.4 13.0 2.6 1.55 0.46
Matas Buzelis S 43.9 20.1 8.4 3.3 3.3 1.08 2.32
Isaac Okoro S 41.0 12.1 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.08 0.77
Tre Jones S 40.8 15.9 4.3 8.7 0.8 2.01 0.31
Guerschon Yabusele S 18.2 5.4 4.3 1.1 1.2 0.31 0.31
Collin Sexton 12.1 6.7 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.49 0.11
Yuki Kawamura 10.3 3.4 2.2 3.0 0.5 0.71 0.00
Mac McClung 6.4 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.71 0.27
Nick Richards 6.3 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.33
Rob Dillingham 6.2 2.5 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.38 0.05
Lachlan Olbrich 3.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.05 0.05
Leonard Miller 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.05
MIN @ DEN
3:30 PM ET
MIN Win%
44.1%
DEN Win%
55.9%
Proj Score
113.6 - 117.9
Model Spread
DEN -4.3
Model Total
231.6
βœ…
Trend Strength
MIN Model Pick: 66% SU
Model accurate when picking MIN
⚠️
Caution
MIN as Dog: 13% SU
Rarely upsets as underdog
Book MIN ML Edge DEN ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -110 -8.3% -120 +1.4% -1.5
FanDuel -102 -6.4% -125 +0.4% -1.5
BetMGM -102 -6.4% -125 +0.4% -1.5
ESPN Bet -105 -7.1% -125 +0.4% -1.5
DraftKings
233.5
O 46.4% | U 53.6%
FanDuel
233.5
O 46.4% | U 53.6%
BetMGM
231.5
O 49.2% | U 50.8%
ESPN Bet
233.5
O 46.4% | U 53.6%
MIN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 25-13 (65.8%)
  • As Dog SU: 1-7 (12.5%)
  • Overall ATS: 20-31 (39.2%)
  • As Dog O/U: Over 6-2 (75.0%)
  • Away ATS: 10-15 (40.0%)
  • As Dog ATS: 3-5 (37.5%)
  • As Dog Model O/U: 3-5 (37.5%)
DEN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 27-16 (62.8%)
  • As Fav O/U: Over 26-10 (72.2%)
  • Model Pick O/U: Over 28-14 (66.7%)
  • As Fav SU: 24-12 (66.7%)
  • Overall O/U: Over 34-21 (61.8%)
  • Overall SU: 34-22 (60.7%)
MIN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Anthony Edwards S 41.7 29.7 6.1 4.4 4.0 1.65 0.94
Julius Randle S 39.2 21.7 8.0 6.2 1.8 1.30 0.35
Jaden McDaniels S 37.9 15.1 5.2 3.4 1.8 1.30 1.30
Donte DiVincenzo S 36.5 12.9 5.2 5.0 3.7 1.65 0.47
Rudy Gobert S 36.8 11.0 13.4 2.0 0.0 0.83 2.00
Ayo Dosunmu 9.7 6.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.29 0.11
Naz Reid 9.6 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.37 0.37
Mike Conley 6.6 1.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.22 0.11
Bones Hyland 5.4 3.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.22 0.07
Jaylen Clark 4.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.26 0.04
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.11 0.00
Joan Beringer 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.04 0.15
Julian Phillips 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.18 0.07
Joe Ingles 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.15 0.00
DEN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jamal Murray S 46.0 28.3 5.8 9.6 4.2 1.32 0.53
Nikola Jokić S 45.2 32.1 16.6 13.8 2.6 1.84 0.92
Cameron Johnson S 40.6 13.0 5.0 3.0 2.5 0.79 0.53
Christian Braun S 40.6 11.9 6.2 3.8 1.1 0.92 0.53
Julian Strawther S 19.6 7.7 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.66 0.13
Bruce Brown 9.8 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.43 0.12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10.6 6.4 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.20 0.04
Jalen Pickett 6.9 2.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.12 0.04
Jonas Valančiūnas 5.5 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.12 0.24
KJ Simpson 6.0 2.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.39 0.00
DaRon Holmes II 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.00 0.08
Zeke Nnaji 4.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.12 0.20
MEM @ IND
5:00 PM ET
MEM Win%
53%
IND Win%
47%
Proj Score
116.6 - 115
Model Spread
IND +1.5
Model Total
231.6
⚠️
Caution
IND Model Pick: 27% SU
Model struggles picking IND
⚠️
Caution
IND as Dog: 23% SU
Rarely upsets as underdog
Book MEM ML Edge IND ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -112 +0.2% -108 -4.9% +1.5
FanDuel -108 +1.1% -108 -4.9% +1
BetMGM -105 +1.8% -115 -6.5% -1.5
ESPN Bet -115 -0.5% -105 -4.2% +1.5
DraftKings
237.5
O 40.1% | U 59.9%
FanDuel
237.5
O 40.1% | U 59.9%
BetMGM
236.5
O 41.4% | U 58.6%
ESPN Bet
237.5
O 40.1% | U 59.9%
MEM Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 6-8 (42.9%)
  • Overall SU: 18-34 (34.6%)
  • Away SU: 8-18 (30.8%)
  • As Fav Model O/U: 4-9 (30.8%)
  • As Fav SU: 9-6 (60.0%)
IND Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 3-8 (27.3%)
  • Overall SU: 14-42 (25.0%)
  • As Dog SU: 11-36 (23.4%)
  • Home SU: 9-20 (31.0%)
MEM
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jaylen Wells S 50.8 19.9 6.5 3.2 3.4 1.53 0.19
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 39.2 18.3 3.6 9.3 2.1 4.58 1.14
GG Jackson S 37.3 16.9 7.4 2.7 2.1 1.33 1.33
Walter Clayton Jr. S 35.5 11.3 3.8 6.5 1.9 1.14 0.57
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 29.3 12.0 5.9 1.5 1.5 0.95 0.38
Cam Spencer 8.6 5.2 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.25 0.04
Cedric Coward 9.5 4.9 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.22 0.14
Ty Jerome 7.6 8.9 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.47 0.11
Jahmai Mashack 5.4 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.47 0.11
Javon Small 6.2 3.5 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.22 0.07
Taylor Hendricks 6.1 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.18 0.11
Rayan Rupert 4.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.25 0.00
IND
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jarace Walker S 45.4 17.1 9.0 4.2 3.0 1.47 0.74
Obi Toppin S 41.7 17.7 10.1 2.8 1.5 1.84 0.00
Ben Sheppard S 40.1 11.0 5.9 3.3 2.4 1.11 0.18
Jay Huff S 37.3 13.9 7.0 2.6 2.6 1.11 3.50
Kam Jones S 27.6 6.3 2.6 3.9 0.9 0.74 0.00
Andrew Nembhard 10.8 7.4 1.0 2.5 0.7 0.31 0.03
Pascal Siakam 11.5 7.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.38 0.14
Micah Potter 6.7 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.17 0.10
Quenton Jackson 5.9 3.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.20 0.07
T.J. McConnell 5.8 4.1 0.8 1.6 0.1 0.38 0.07
Kobe Brown 4.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.10 0.03
Taelon Peter 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.17 0.03
Edge = Model probability βˆ’ Implied odds probability. Positive edge suggests value. Use responsibly.