NBA • Player Projections

Player Stats Performance

Track the accuracy of our player stat projections. This page shows how well our model predicts individual player stats like points, rebounds, assists, and more. Hit rates show how often projections landed within a given range of the actual result.

Data: Live
Last updated: 2026-03-01
Metrics: 5
Points
n = 4,130
MAE (Raw)
5.72
MAE (Calibrated)
5.63
Bias
0.88
RMSE
7.28
Hit Rates (within ± of actual)
±1
12.3%
±2
22.5%
±3
32.9%
±5
52.3%
±8
75.1%
Rebounds
n = 4,130
MAE (Raw)
2.85
MAE (Calibrated)
2.33
Bias
1.82
RMSE
3.53
Hit Rates (within ± of actual)
±1
21.6%
±2
41.7%
±3
60.0%
±5
85.5%
±8
97.9%
Assists
n = 4,130
MAE (Raw)
1.91
MAE (Calibrated)
1.77
Bias
0.78
RMSE
2.47
Hit Rates (within ± of actual)
±1
34.2%
±2
64.4%
±3
81.6%
±5
95.1%
±8
99.5%
3-Pointers Made
n = 2,940
MAE (Raw)
1.26
MAE (Calibrated)
1.20
Bias
0.43
RMSE
1.64
Hit Rates (within ± of actual)
±1
50.2%
±2
80.7%
±3
93.5%
±5
99.5%
±8
100.0%
Minutes
n = 4,130
MAE (Raw)
9.89
MAE (Calibrated)
5.71
Bias
8.90
RMSE
11.71
Hit Rates (within ± of actual)
±1
4.0%
±2
7.7%
±3
12.3%
±5
23.5%
±8
42.9%
Performance by Team
Team N MAE Bias ±1 ±2 ±3 ±5
BKN 145 5.30 1.42 11.0% 22.1% 31.7% 53.1%
CHA 145 6.31 1.96 15.2% 21.4% 30.3% 49.0%
CHI 145 4.83 1.14 13.1% 29.0% 42.8% 65.5%
HOU 145 5.40 -0.49 11.7% 27.6% 36.6% 58.6%
PHI 145 5.60 -0.47 13.8% 27.6% 40.0% 55.2%
PHX 145 5.90 0.74 10.3% 18.6% 33.1% 51.7%
SAC 145 6.41 2.22 8.3% 17.2% 26.2% 44.8%
ATL 140 6.15 -0.68 10.0% 21.4% 30.7% 47.1%
DEN 140 6.41 -0.27 10.7% 19.3% 28.6% 48.6%
IND 140 5.54 0.85 12.9% 22.9% 31.4% 50.7%
LAL 140 5.88 1.46 10.0% 22.1% 30.0% 49.3%
MIA 140 5.40 1.25 12.1% 25.7% 34.3% 53.6%
MIN 140 5.68 -0.78 12.9% 21.4% 31.4% 52.1%
NYK 140 6.00 1.91 12.9% 22.9% 32.1% 45.0%
OKC 140 5.90 2.00 12.1% 17.1% 32.1% 50.7%
POR 140 5.64 -2.09 13.6% 24.3% 37.1% 57.1%
SAS 140 6.67 2.32 10.7% 16.4% 27.1% 42.9%
UTA 140 5.08 0.01 13.6% 24.3% 38.6% 62.9%
WAS 140 4.76 0.84 13.6% 25.0% 38.6% 58.6%
BOS 135 5.40 0.43 14.8% 29.6% 37.0% 57.8%
CLE 135 6.03 0.66 8.9% 18.5% 25.9% 52.6%
GSW 135 5.33 1.44 17.0% 21.5% 32.6% 54.8%
LAC 135 4.77 1.34 16.3% 25.9% 37.0% 55.6%
NOP 135 6.22 1.65 10.4% 20.0% 31.1% 54.8%
ORL 130 5.98 0.32 11.5% 22.3% 31.5% 47.7%
TOR 130 5.78 2.60 12.3% 20.8% 27.7% 46.9%
DAL 125 5.96 0.10 15.2% 23.2% 31.2% 48.0%
DET 125 5.93 1.81 13.6% 23.2% 32.0% 48.0%
MEM 125 5.43 2.28 12.0% 24.0% 38.4% 52.0%
MIL 125 5.92 0.59 7.2% 20.8% 29.6% 52.8%
Performance by Player
Player N MAE Bias ±1 ±2 ±3 ±5
DeMar DeRozan SAC 29 7.90 6.02 6.9% 17.2% 31.0% 41.4%
Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 29 4.70 -1.49 13.8% 27.6% 41.4% 58.6%
Matas Buzelis CHI 29 4.71 -0.73 20.7% 34.5% 48.3% 69.0%
Royce O'Neale PHX 29 3.92 2.70 13.8% 31.0% 44.8% 69.0%
Tyrese Maxey PHI 29 6.64 0.44 10.3% 31.0% 34.5% 51.7%
VJ Edgecombe PHI 29 6.17 1.57 6.9% 13.8% 24.1% 37.9%
Bam Adebayo MIA 28 6.00 0.20 14.3% 25.0% 39.3% 50.0%
Brandon Miller CHA 28 6.28 -1.98 14.3% 14.3% 28.6% 50.0%
Collin Gillespie PHX 28 4.99 0.19 3.6% 21.4% 46.4% 60.7%
De'Aaron Fox SAS 28 7.69 5.43 3.6% 7.1% 10.7% 28.6%
Donte DiVincenzo MIN 28 5.35 2.30 14.3% 14.3% 21.4% 50.0%
Isaac Okoro CHI 28 3.62 0.65 17.9% 39.3% 53.6% 78.6%
Jaden McDaniels MIN 28 6.39 -2.62 14.3% 17.9% 21.4% 35.7%
Julius Randle MIN 28 5.59 -1.21 14.3% 17.9% 35.7% 60.7%
Kevin Durant HOU 28 7.57 -1.58 3.6% 10.7% 21.4% 46.4%
Kon Knueppel CHA 28 5.51 -2.91 17.9% 21.4% 32.1% 60.7%
Mark Williams PHX 28 7.27 5.71 7.1% 10.7% 17.9% 35.7%
Mikal Bridges NYK 28 5.79 2.92 0.0% 17.9% 25.0% 39.3%
Toumani Camara POR 28 4.64 -0.61 14.3% 25.0% 46.4% 71.4%
Amen Thompson HOU 27 4.63 -0.71 18.5% 25.9% 33.3% 59.3%
Donovan Clingan POR 27 4.89 -3.17 3.7% 25.9% 48.1% 66.7%
Julian Champagnie SAS 27 5.61 -0.63 22.2% 29.6% 40.7% 66.7%
Kris Dunn LAC 27 3.92 0.99 18.5% 33.3% 44.4% 59.3%
Marcus Smart LAL 27 5.95 4.38 14.8% 22.2% 25.9% 44.4%
Moses Moody GSW 27 5.63 2.05 7.4% 11.1% 25.9% 48.1%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 27 6.74 -6.14 7.4% 25.9% 33.3% 48.1%
Zion Williamson NOP 27 7.87 6.11 7.4% 18.5% 25.9% 44.4%
Andrew Wiggins MIA 26 7.46 5.28 0.0% 7.7% 15.4% 30.8%
Anthony Black ORL 26 6.72 -3.82 3.8% 15.4% 26.9% 34.6%
Derrick White BOS 26 6.77 3.77 19.2% 23.1% 30.8% 38.5%
Desmond Bane ORL 26 6.43 -0.37 19.2% 30.8% 34.6% 50.0%
Dyson Daniels ATL 26 5.65 3.87 11.5% 15.4% 23.1% 53.8%
Jalen Brunson NYK 26 7.06 3.01 15.4% 19.2% 30.8% 46.2%
Jarrett Allen CLE 26 6.25 -2.36 7.7% 19.2% 26.9% 50.0%
Karl-Anthony Towns NYK 26 6.60 5.86 11.5% 19.2% 34.6% 42.3%
LaMelo Ball CHA 26 7.13 5.00 15.4% 19.2% 19.2% 34.6%
LeBron James LAL 26 4.87 2.60 15.4% 26.9% 38.5% 57.7%
Luguentz Dort OKC 26 4.33 1.80 15.4% 23.1% 42.3% 61.5%
Paolo Banchero ORL 26 6.99 3.32 11.5% 11.5% 26.9% 42.3%
Stephon Castle SAS 26 6.18 2.83 15.4% 23.1% 42.3% 57.7%
Alperen Sengun HOU 25 6.85 1.82 8.0% 24.0% 32.0% 52.0%
Anthony Edwards MIN 25 7.54 -3.88 8.0% 16.0% 20.0% 44.0%
Ausar Thompson DET 25 5.68 5.31 8.0% 16.0% 16.0% 36.0%
Chet Holmgren OKC 25 4.87 2.85 12.0% 16.0% 32.0% 56.0%
Dillon Brooks PHX 25 8.10 -4.86 12.0% 12.0% 16.0% 28.0%
Donovan Mitchell CLE 25 7.30 2.56 8.0% 20.0% 24.0% 44.0%
Duncan Robinson DET 25 4.88 2.54 12.0% 24.0% 32.0% 44.0%
Maxime Raynaud SAC 25 4.31 1.52 24.0% 36.0% 48.0% 64.0%
Neemias Queta BOS 25 3.20 1.07 20.0% 40.0% 52.0% 76.0%
Precious Achiuwa SAC 25 5.26 -1.27 8.0% 20.0% 28.0% 64.0%
Rudy Gobert MIN 25 3.80 0.72 12.0% 36.0% 56.0% 64.0%
Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 25 5.24 0.72 8.0% 24.0% 32.0% 52.0%
AJ Green MIL 24 4.77 1.10 8.3% 20.8% 33.3% 62.5%
Brandon Ingram TOR 24 7.51 3.34 4.2% 8.3% 16.7% 37.5%
Deandre Ayton LAL 24 6.46 3.48 8.3% 16.7% 29.2% 37.5%
Derik Queen NOP 24 4.80 2.97 12.5% 16.7% 25.0% 62.5%
Dominick Barlow PHI 24 4.10 1.65 16.7% 37.5% 54.2% 66.7%
Egor Dëmin BKN 24 6.24 2.47 8.3% 16.7% 25.0% 45.8%
Immanuel Quickley TOR 24 6.67 3.75 12.5% 25.0% 29.2% 41.7%
Jake LaRavia LAL 24 5.80 -0.21 8.3% 12.5% 20.8% 54.2%
Jalen Johnson ATL 24 7.05 -2.36 4.2% 16.7% 25.0% 33.3%
Jamal Murray DEN 24 6.26 0.91 4.2% 20.8% 29.2% 58.3%
Jaylen Wells MEM 24 4.86 2.64 16.7% 20.8% 29.2% 58.3%
Miles Bridges CHA 24 8.95 8.60 4.2% 12.5% 16.7% 29.2%
OG Anunoby NYK 24 5.88 -0.11 8.3% 20.8% 33.3% 45.8%
Russell Westbrook SAC 24 5.77 -0.10 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 41.7%
Scottie Barnes TOR 24 5.00 3.50 8.3% 20.8% 37.5% 62.5%
Andrew Nembhard IND 23 6.73 -3.75 13.0% 13.0% 17.4% 30.4%
Jaylen Brown BOS 23 6.47 -3.37 4.3% 21.7% 26.1% 52.2%
John Collins LAC 23 5.31 4.12 17.4% 26.1% 30.4% 56.5%
Kawhi Leonard LAC 23 4.65 -2.27 13.0% 26.1% 43.5% 78.3%
Luka Dončić LAL 23 7.17 -1.94 4.3% 21.7% 30.4% 47.8%
Nic Claxton BKN 23 4.62 2.57 13.0% 26.1% 39.1% 60.9%
Noah Clowney BKN 23 5.57 1.40 4.3% 17.4% 30.4% 43.5%
Onyeka Okongwu ATL 23 5.03 0.05 13.0% 26.1% 43.5% 52.2%
Ryan Rollins MIL 23 5.87 -2.23 4.3% 26.1% 30.4% 47.8%
Victor Wembanyama SAS 23 6.31 -2.27 4.3% 13.0% 30.4% 39.1%
Bilal Coulibaly WAS 22 3.45 2.30 18.2% 40.9% 50.0% 68.2%
Cade Cunningham DET 22 8.57 5.68 22.7% 22.7% 27.3% 36.4%
Draymond Green GSW 22 4.84 2.78 18.2% 22.7% 27.3% 63.6%
Max Christie DAL 22 5.42 -2.95 18.2% 18.2% 27.3% 54.5%
Moussa Diabaté CHA 22 3.42 0.27 22.7% 40.9% 59.1% 77.3%
Norman Powell MIA 22 5.51 1.97 9.1% 27.3% 36.4% 59.1%
Sam Hauser BOS 22 4.77 -1.03 22.7% 36.4% 36.4% 63.6%
Tre Johnson WAS 22 4.84 0.10 9.1% 22.7% 27.3% 54.5%
Cason Wallace OKC 21 6.43 -1.22 19.0% 23.8% 28.6% 42.9%
Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21 7.17 -2.03 9.5% 23.8% 28.6% 47.6%
Myles Turner MIL 21 6.50 3.38 4.8% 19.0% 33.3% 52.4%
Pascal Siakam IND 21 3.68 1.51 23.8% 42.9% 52.4% 71.4%
Saddiq Bey NOP 21 7.49 -5.65 9.5% 28.6% 28.6% 57.1%
Trey Murphy III NOP 21 7.40 -0.01 4.8% 9.5% 28.6% 47.6%
Ace Bailey UTA 20 5.19 -0.73 10.0% 15.0% 35.0% 65.0%
Alex Sarr WAS 20 5.46 0.64 20.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%
Jay Huff IND 20 7.90 5.12 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 25.0%
Joel Embiid PHI 20 7.74 -7.05 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% 40.0%
Johnny Furphy IND 20 3.27 0.42 10.0% 25.0% 40.0% 95.0%
Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20 5.23 -1.09 15.0% 25.0% 45.0% 60.0%
Naji Marshall DAL 20 5.73 -1.12 20.0% 35.0% 45.0% 60.0%
Peyton Watson DEN 20 8.46 -8.04 15.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Shaedon Sharpe POR 20 5.95 -0.76 25.0% 25.0% 30.0% 55.0%