NBA • Tracking
Model Performance
This page tracks Dr Cover's NBA Model – Version 1. The model was built using machine learning and decades of historical NBA data to evaluate performance over time. This is the baseline release, and future versions will include additional enhancements, expanded features, and continued calibration as the OddsRX platform evolves.
Sides (Winners) 4,879 games
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 838 | 503 | 60.0% |
| Pred not B2B | 735 | 442 | 60.1% |
| Mkt agree | 603 | 408 | 67.7% |
| Book fav (>55%) | 564 | 387 | 68.6% |
| Conf 50–55% | 554 | 303 | 54.7% |
| Home picks | 517 | 318 | 61.5% |
| Away picks | 321 | 185 | 57.6% |
| Conf 56–65% | 277 | 194 | 70.0% |
| Mkt disagree | 214 | 83 | 38.8% |
| Dog (<45%) | 146 | 48 | 32.9% |
| Pred on B2B | 103 | 61 | 59.2% |
| Conf 66–75% | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Conf >75% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Spreads (ATS) 5,712 games
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 816 | 421 | 51.6% |
| Picking dog | 710 | 367 | 51.7% |
| Pick not B2B | 689 | 348 | 50.5% |
| WinConf 50–55% | 537 | 289 | 53.8% |
| Disagrees w/ winner | 492 | 259 | 52.6% |
| Away picks | 438 | 228 | 52.1% |
| Home picks | 378 | 193 | 51.1% |
| Agrees w/ winner | 324 | 162 | 50.0% |
| Spread >7.5 | 285 | 142 | 49.8% |
| Spread 4–7.5 | 278 | 144 | 51.8% |
| WinConf 56–65% | 273 | 127 | 46.5% |
| Spread ≤3.5 | 253 | 135 | 53.4% |
| Pick on B2B | 127 | 73 | 57.5% |
| Picking favorite | 106 | 54 | 50.9% |
| WinConf 66–75% | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| WinConf >75% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Expected Value 1,512 games
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative EV | 580 | 392 | 67.6% |
| Positive EV | 241 | 100 | 41.5% |
| EV >5% | 203 | 82 | 40.4% |
| EV >10% | 181 | 67 | 37.0% |
| EV >15% | 163 | 60 | 36.8% |
| EV >20% | 144 | 53 | 36.8% |
Totals (O/U) 1,983 games
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 805 | 398 | 49.4% |
| Pred overs | 407 | 190 | 46.7% |
| Pred unders | 378 | 189 | 50.0% |
| Overs Δ≥5 | 218 | 103 | 47.2% |
| Unders Δ≤-5 | 175 | 84 | 48.0% |
Variance / Pace 1,610 games
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low SD ≤25.6 | 403 | 192 | 47.6% |
| Slow ≤98.3 | 403 | 206 | 51.1% |
| High SD >25.6 | 402 | 206 | 51.2% |
| Fast >98.3 | 402 | 192 | 47.8% |