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NBA • Today's Games

Model Picks

Live simulation results from Dr Cover's NBA model. Each game runs through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to generate win probabilities, projected scores, and edge calculations against major sportsbooks.

📊 Model Performance | 📈 Player Stats Performance |📄 NBA Model Notes

⚠️ Important Disclosure

These predictions are for entertainment purposes only and are not guaranteed to be profitable. Our models have known limitations, and we are continuously working to improve accuracy over time. Each model version will have its own strengths and weaknesses. Please review the Model Performance links above to understand current accuracy rates and check back regularly for updates.

Data: Live
Last run: 2026-03-01 15:12 ET
Games: 4
SAS @ NYK
1:00 PM ET
SAS Win%
45.2%
NYK Win%
54.8%
Proj Score
113.9 - 117.2
Model Spread
NYK -3.3
Model Total
231
Best Edge
SAS ML (+475)
+27.8%
ESPNBET
✅
Trend Strength
SAS Model Pick: 80% SU
Model accurate when picking SAS
✅
Trend Strength
NYK Model Pick: 69% SU
Model accurate when picking NYK
Book SAS ML Edge NYK ML Edge Spread
DraftKings +450 +27% -720 -33% -7.5
FanDuel +450 +27% -720 -33% -8.5
BetMGM +400 +25.2% -625 -31.4% -7.5
ESPN Bet +475 +27.8% -800 -34.1% -8.5
DraftKings
204.5
O 84.8% | U 15.3%
FanDuel
203.5
O 85.7% | U 14.3%
BetMGM
203.5
O 85.7% | U 14.3%
ESPN Bet
203.5
O 85.7% | U 14.3%
SAS Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 20-5 (80.0%)
  • Overall SU: 40-15 (72.7%)
  • Away SU: 21-9 (70.0%)
  • As Dog ATS: 11-5 (68.8%)
  • As Dog SU: 10-6 (62.5%)
NYK Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 29-13 (69.0%)
  • Home SU: 22-8 (73.3%)
  • As Fav SU: 31-15 (67.4%)
  • Overall SU: 38-21 (64.4%)
  • Home ATS: 18-10 (64.3%)
SAS
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
De'Aaron Fox S 40.8 20.9 4.9 8.0 2.5 1.68 0.39
Devin Vassell S 39.5 15.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 1.04 0.52
Stephon Castle S 38.3 18.3 6.3 8.8 1.3 1.68 0.39
Victor Wembanyama S 37.4 26.1 14.5 3.8 2.2 1.30 3.63
Julian Champagnie S 36.0 12.6 7.5 1.9 3.2 1.04 0.52
Harrison Barnes 9.8 4.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.26 0.07
Dylan Harper 8.0 5.0 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.33 0.11
Keldon Johnson 8.5 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.22 0.04
Luke Kornet 8.0 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.18 0.44
Carter Bryant 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.07 0.07
Kelly Olynyk 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.15 0.00
Bismack Biyombo 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.11 0.04
Jordan McLaughlin 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.00
Lindy Waters III 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.04 0.00
NYK
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jalen Brunson S 40.7 26.8 4.0 7.2 3.4 0.83 0.12
Mikal Bridges S 40.0 15.7 4.8 4.7 2.5 1.77 0.94
OG Anunoby S 38.9 16.3 6.3 2.7 2.4 2.01 0.83
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36.8 20.0 13.8 3.3 1.9 1.06 0.71
Josh Hart S 35.6 11.9 8.7 6.1 1.8 1.30 0.35
Jose Alvarado 7.9 3.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.37 0.04
Landry Shamet 8.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.18 0.07
Jordan Clarkson 6.7 3.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.15 0.07
Mitchell Robinson 7.2 2.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.30 0.44
Jeremy Sochan 4.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.11 0.07
Tyler Kolek 4.7 2.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.15 0.04
Ariel Hukporti 3.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.07 0.18
Kevin McCullar Jr. 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.15 0.00
Mohamed Diawara 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.07 0.04
CLE @ BKN
3:30 PM ET
CLE Win%
53.8%
BKN Win%
46.2%
Proj Score
117.2 - 114.9
Model Spread
BKN +2.3
Model Total
232
Best Edge
BKN ML (+475)
+28.8%
BETMGM
✅
Trend Strength
CLE Model Pick: 65% SU
Model accurate when picking CLE
⚠️
Caution
BKN as Dog: 22% SU
Rarely upsets as underdog
Book CLE ML Edge BKN ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -650 -32.9% +470 +28.7% +12.5
FanDuel -620 -32.3% +460 +28.3% +13
BetMGM -650 -32.9% +475 +28.8% +12.5
ESPN Bet -750 -34.4% +475 +28.8% +13.5
DraftKings
225.5
O 59.4% | U 40.6%
FanDuel
225.5
O 59.4% | U 40.6%
BetMGM
225.5
O 59.4% | U 40.6%
ESPN Bet
225.5
O 59.4% | U 40.6%
CLE Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 26-14 (65.0%)
  • As Fav SU: 32-16 (66.7%)
  • Model Pick ATS: 13-27 (32.5%)
  • Overall SU: 36-24 (60.0%)
  • As Fav ATS: 19-29 (39.6%)
BKN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 5-5 (50.0%)
  • As Dog SU: 11-38 (22.4%)
  • Overall SU: 15-40 (27.3%)
  • Home SU: 8-20 (28.6%)
CLE
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
James Harden S 45.2 27.0 6.2 10.5 3.9 1.55 0.52
Evan Mobley S 42.4 19.5 11.3 4.9 1.6 1.17 2.46
Jarrett Allen S 35.6 16.8 11.1 2.6 0.0 1.29 1.17
Jaylon Tyson S 35.6 14.9 7.0 2.8 2.6 1.17 0.52
Sam Merrill S 33.2 14.5 3.0 2.8 4.4 0.78 0.13
Dennis Schröder 10.3 5.4 1.2 2.1 0.5 0.36 0.08
Craig Porter Jr. 7.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.40 0.24
Keon Ellis 7.3 2.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.48 0.24
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 6.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.28 0.24
Larry Nance Jr. 5.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.24 0.04
Thomas Bryant 4.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.08 0.16
Tyrese Proctor 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.16 0.00
Tristan Enaruna 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.00 0.00
Darius Brown 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00
BKN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Michael Porter Jr. S 49.5 31.6 10.7 4.9 5.2 1.52 0.30
Noah Clowney S 42.8 16.6 6.4 2.6 3.2 1.22 1.07
Terance Mann S 37.6 9.8 4.7 4.9 1.4 1.07 0.30
Nolan Traore S 33.8 10.3 2.4 5.6 1.4 1.07 0.61
Day'Ron Sharpe S 28.2 11.0 10.2 3.5 0.2 1.67 0.61
Danny Wolf 8.5 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.25 0.21
Ziaire Williams 9.4 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.50 0.21
Ben Saraf 7.1 2.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.29 0.08
Jalen Wilson 5.9 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.17 0.04
Josh Minott 6.5 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.29 0.13
Ochai Agbaji 6.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.17 0.13
Grant Nelson 4.1 1.6 0.8 1.7 0.0 0.00 0.84
MIL @ CHI
3:30 PM ET
MIL Win%
48.6%
CHI Win%
51.4%
Proj Score
115.5 - 116.7
Model Spread
CHI -1.2
Model Total
232.2
Best Edge
CHI ML (+125)
+7%
ESPNBET
Book MIL ML Edge CHI ML Edge Spread
DraftKings -142 -10.1% +120 +6% +2.5
FanDuel -138 -9.4% +118 +5.6% +2.5
BetMGM -145 -10.6% +118 +5.6% +2.5
ESPN Bet -145 -10.6% +125 +7% +2.5
DraftKings
231.5
O 50.3% | U 49.7%
FanDuel
231.5
O 50.3% | U 49.7%
BetMGM
231.5
O 50.3% | U 49.7%
ESPN Bet
231.5
O 50.3% | U 49.7%
MIL Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 16-18 (47.1%)
  • Away O/U: Over 9-18 (33.3%)
  • Overall O/U: Over 20-30 (40.0%)
  • As Fav ATS: 7-13 (35.0%)
  • As Fav Model O/U: 7-12 (36.8%)
  • Away SU: 12-18 (40.0%)
CHI Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 10-14 (41.7%)
  • As Dog SU: 13-21 (38.2%)
  • Model Pick ATS: 9-15 (37.5%)
  • Home O/U: Over 11-17 (39.3%)
MIL
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Kevin Porter Jr. S 42.8 19.6 6.7 9.7 1.7 2.82 0.64
Ryan Rollins S 41.0 18.6 5.9 6.9 3.2 1.92 0.51
AJ Green S 38.5 11.2 3.3 2.6 3.8 0.64 0.13
Myles Turner S 35.8 13.8 7.2 2.0 2.8 0.90 2.05
Kyle Kuzma S 33.9 14.1 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.77 0.51
Bobby Portis 8.9 5.4 2.4 0.6 0.7 0.22 0.07
Cam Thomas 8.5 5.3 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.04 0.04
Gary Trent Jr. 8.3 3.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.19 0.04
Jericho Sims 6.2 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.07 0.11
Gary Harris 5.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.22 0.07
Ousmane Dieng 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.07 0.11
Pete Nance 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.11 0.07
Andre Jackson Jr. 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.11 0.04
CHI
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Josh Giddey S 48.1 23.3 12.4 13.0 2.6 1.55 0.46
Matas Buzelis S 43.9 20.1 8.4 3.3 3.3 1.08 2.32
Isaac Okoro S 41.0 12.1 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.08 0.77
Tre Jones S 40.8 15.9 4.3 8.7 0.8 2.01 0.31
Guerschon Yabusele S 18.2 5.4 4.3 1.1 1.2 0.31 0.31
Collin Sexton 12.1 6.7 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.49 0.11
Yuki Kawamura 10.3 3.4 2.2 3.0 0.5 0.71 0.00
Mac McClung 6.4 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.71 0.27
Nick Richards 6.3 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.33
Rob Dillingham 6.2 2.5 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.38 0.05
Lachlan Olbrich 3.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.05 0.05
Leonard Miller 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.11 0.05
MIN @ DEN
3:30 PM ET
MIN Win%
45.3%
DEN Win%
54.7%
Proj Score
114.2 - 117.6
Model Spread
DEN -3.4
Model Total
231.8
✅
Trend Strength
MIN Model Pick: 66% SU
Model accurate when picking MIN
⚠️
Caution
MIN as Dog: 13% SU
Rarely upsets as underdog
Book MIN ML Edge DEN ML Edge Spread
DraftKings +120 -0.2% -142 -4% -2.5
FanDuel +120 -0.2% -142 -4% -2.5
BetMGM +120 -0.2% -145 -4.5% -2.5
ESPN Bet +125 +0.8% -145 -4.5% -2.5
DraftKings
241.5
O 34.8% | U 65.2%
FanDuel
241.5
O 34.8% | U 65.2%
BetMGM
241.5
O 34.8% | U 65.2%
ESPN Bet
241.5
O 34.8% | U 65.2%
MIN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 25-13 (65.8%)
  • As Dog SU: 1-7 (12.5%)
  • Overall ATS: 20-31 (39.2%)
  • As Dog O/U: Over 6-2 (75.0%)
  • Away ATS: 10-15 (40.0%)
  • As Dog ATS: 3-5 (37.5%)
  • As Dog Model O/U: 3-5 (37.5%)
DEN Trends
  • Model Pick SU: 27-16 (62.8%)
  • As Fav O/U: Over 26-10 (72.2%)
  • Model Pick O/U: Over 28-14 (66.7%)
  • As Fav SU: 24-12 (66.7%)
  • Overall O/U: Over 34-21 (61.8%)
  • Overall SU: 34-22 (60.7%)
MIN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Anthony Edwards S 41.7 29.7 6.1 4.4 4.0 1.65 0.94
Julius Randle S 39.2 21.7 8.0 6.2 1.8 1.30 0.35
Jaden McDaniels S 37.9 15.1 5.2 3.4 1.8 1.30 1.30
Donte DiVincenzo S 36.5 12.9 5.2 4.9 3.7 1.65 0.47
Rudy Gobert S 36.8 11.0 13.4 2.0 0.0 0.82 2.00
Ayo Dosunmu 9.7 6.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.29 0.11
Naz Reid 9.6 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.37 0.37
Mike Conley 6.6 1.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.22 0.11
Bones Hyland 5.4 3.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.22 0.07
Jaylen Clark 4.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.26 0.04
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.11 0.00
Joan Beringer 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.04 0.15
Julian Phillips 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.18 0.07
Joe Ingles 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.15 0.00
DEN
Player Min Pts Reb Ast 3PM Stl Blk
Jamal Murray S 46.0 28.3 5.8 9.6 4.2 1.32 0.53
Nikola Jokić S 45.2 32.1 16.6 13.8 2.6 1.84 0.92
Cameron Johnson S 40.6 13.0 5.0 3.0 2.5 0.79 0.53
Christian Braun S 40.6 11.9 6.2 3.8 1.1 0.92 0.53
Julian Strawther S 19.6 7.7 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.66 0.13
Bruce Brown 9.8 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.43 0.12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10.6 6.4 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.20 0.04
Jalen Pickett 6.9 2.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.12 0.04
Jonas Valančiūnas 5.5 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.12 0.24
KJ Simpson 6.0 2.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.39 0.00
DaRon Holmes II 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.00 0.08
Zeke Nnaji 4.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.12 0.20
Edge = Model probability − Implied odds probability. Positive edge suggests value. Use responsibly.