Official Plays: 3-0. Gold Stars: 0-0. Hot Hitters: 0-0.
The card got the job done across the board, and it was the kind of sweep you want when the model likes the setup. Three plays, three wins, and each one had the same backbone: an A-grade arm matched against weaker opposing pitching, with enough lineup and bullpen support to keep the edge real. The Yankees, Brewers, and Dodgers all cashed, even if a couple of them made it messier than it needed to be late.
Official Plays
New York Yankees
Official Play: Angle Support 62.2; model probability 69.2%. Grades — starter A vs. D, lineup B vs. D, bullpen B vs. C. Strongest historical matches: Open A starter vs D/F opposing starter (67.1% in 73 games); Open model win probability 65% to 75% (67.0% in 88 games).
Final: Colorado Rockies 3, New York Yankees 5. Box score: New York Yankees had 8 hits and 1 home runs; Colorado Rockies had 4 hits and 2 home runs.
The Yankees fit the strongest profile on the board: an A-grade starter against a D-grade opposing arm, plus a solid lineup and bullpen behind him. That matched the kind of historical setup this model likes, and the win probability sat right in the sweet spot for the angle. It played out with New York putting up five runs on eight hits, getting a homer, and surviving some waste with men on base. The Rockies had only four hits, but two of them left the yard, so this one asked for some nerves before closing cleanly.
Milwaukee Brewers
Official Play: Angle Support 60.39; model probability 62.2%. Grades — starter A vs. D, lineup F vs. B, bullpen A vs. C. Strongest historical matches: Open A starter vs D/F opposing starter (67.1% in 73 games); Open A-grade starter (62.2% in 209 games).
Final: Chicago Cubs 3, Milwaukee Brewers 4. Box score: Milwaukee Brewers had 12 hits and 1 home runs; Chicago Cubs had 7 hits and 0 home runs.
Milwaukee was another clean fit for the same starter-based angles, with Jacob Misiorowski in an A-grade spot and the opposing side bringing a weaker arm. The lineup grade was ugly, but the pitching edge and the broader win profile were still enough to qualify. The Brewers backed it with twelve hits and a homer, then escaped a stressful box score where both clubs piled up runners and Milwaukee left way too many out there. Still, the result held, and that’s all the ticket needed.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Official Play: Angle Support 61.89; model probability 66.1%. Grades — starter A vs. D, lineup B vs. B, bullpen A vs. B. Strongest historical matches: Open A starter vs D/F opposing starter (67.1% in 73 games); Open model win probability 65% to 75% (67.0% in 88 games).
Final: Cincinnati Reds 2, Los Angeles Dodgers 3. Box score: Los Angeles Dodgers had 7 hits and 1 home runs; Cincinnati Reds had 5 hits and 1 home runs.
The Dodgers checked the same boxes that kept showing up in the model: A-grade starter, weak opposing starter, and a win probability that landed in the preferred range. The overall grades were sturdy enough to support the play, even with neither lineup doing much to separate. Los Angeles scratched out three runs on seven hits and a homer, and the box score says this was tighter than it should’ve been, with both teams leaving a lot of traffic on the bases. Ugly at times, but it stayed on script long enough to cash.
Hot Hitters
No qualifying positive hitter matchup trends were available.
What to watch next: We’ll take the sweep, check the board again, and wait for the next clean pitching edge.