A 9-3 day on totals steadied the board while moneylines and run lines both finished 6-6.
Saturday’s 12-game slate split cleanly. The model finished 6-6 on moneylines, 6-6 on run lines, and 9-3 on totals. That gave the day a clear center. The best work came from reading game environment, even as the side card ran into more resistance than the numbers suggested going in.
The biggest drag was the higher-confidence favorite tier. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Brewers all lost despite sitting in the 60-64% range, and those misses mattered because they were the kinds of spots that usually steady a card. Two of them were not blowouts. The Yankees lost by one in Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee dropped a 3-1 game at home. That is the kind of day where the board looks playable on paper but never fully settles once first pitch hits.
The stronger results came from elsewhere. The Athletics’ 11-6 win over the Mets and the Guardians’ 6-0 shutout of the Braves both came from spots where the model found value away from the more obvious favorite side. Those wins helped offset the trouble at the top of the board and kept the straight-up and run-line records from tilting negative.
Totals were the clearest strength from start to finish. The model got both high-scoring and low-scoring games right, including the 11-6 game in New York and the 2-0 Royals win. That is the useful takeaway from this slate. The side card was mixed, but the read on scoring was strong enough to give the day real substance.
Dr. Cover