The scoring read stayed strong at 9-6, but positive-edge moneyline plays went 4-6 and the side card never settled in.
April 15 was a totals day, and that was the clearest truth on the board. The model finished 9-6 on totals, while moneylines slipped to 6-9 and run lines fell to 3-12. Even the positive-edge moneyline bucket came in light at 4-6. That matters, because it means the sharper side positions did not rescue the slate. Totals did.
The under card did most of the lifting. Tigers-Royals stayed under in a 2-1 game, Giants-Reds also finished 2-1, and Rangers-Athletics closed 2-1 late. Even when the side card was wobbling, the scoring read kept showing up in tighter, lower-output games. That gave the slate at least one stable lane, and it was enough to keep the overall day from reading like a full miss.
The side markets never found that same footing. The Yankees lost 7-1 at home to the Angels, Pittsburgh dropped a 5-4 game to Washington, and Milwaukee lost 9-7 to Toronto. Those are straight-up misses that pulled the card under quickly. On the spread side, a few favorites won but still did not clear margin. Atlanta beat Miami 6-5 but missed -1.5. Houston beat Colorado 7-6 and also missed -1.5. The Dodgers won 2-1 and still came up short on the run line. That is how a slate turns into 3-12 on spreads even without total chaos.
The clean takeaway is simple. The edge bucket missed, the side card lagged, and totals were the one part of the model that clearly held up.
Dr. Cover