NBA • Tracking
Model Performance
This page tracks Dr Cover's NBA Model – Version 1. The model was built using machine learning and decades of historical NBA data to evaluate performance over time. This is the baseline release, and future versions will include additional enhancements, expanded features, and continued calibration as the OddsRX platform evolves.
Sides (Winners)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1,208 | 762 | 63.1% |
| Pred not B2B | 1,059 | 671 | 63.4% |
| Mkt agree | 862 | 618 | 71.7% |
| Conf 50–55% | 817 | 470 | 57.5% |
| Book fav (>55%) | 809 | 591 | 73.1% |
| Home picks | 763 | 498 | 65.3% |
| Away picks | 445 | 264 | 59.3% |
| Conf 56–65% | 384 | 286 | 74.5% |
| Mkt disagree | 309 | 120 | 38.8% |
| Dog (<45%) | 216 | 70 | 32.4% |
| Pred on B2B | 149 | 91 | 61.1% |
| Conf 66–75% | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Conf >75% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Spreads (ATS)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1,179 | 605 | 51.3% |
| Picking dog | 1,045 | 533 | 51.0% |
| Pick not B2B | 1,009 | 508 | 50.3% |
| WinConf 50–55% | 795 | 418 | 52.6% |
| Disagrees w/ winner | 728 | 367 | 50.4% |
| Away picks | 636 | 313 | 49.2% |
| Home picks | 543 | 292 | 53.8% |
| Spread >7.5 | 468 | 233 | 49.8% |
| Agrees w/ winner | 451 | 238 | 52.8% |
| WinConf 56–65% | 378 | 182 | 48.1% |
| Spread 4–7.5 | 361 | 183 | 50.7% |
| Spread ≤3.5 | 350 | 189 | 54.0% |
| Pick on B2B | 170 | 97 | 57.1% |
| Picking favorite | 134 | 72 | 53.7% |
| WinConf 66–75% | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| WinConf >75% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Expected Value
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative EV | 836 | 600 | 71.8% |
| Positive EV | 339 | 139 | 41.0% |
| EV >5% | 292 | 114 | 39.0% |
| EV >10% | 264 | 96 | 36.4% |
| EV >15% | 237 | 84 | 35.4% |
| EV >20% | 210 | 72 | 34.3% |
Totals (O/U)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1,176 | 582 | 49.5% |
| Pred overs | 628 | 294 | 46.8% |
| Pred unders | 516 | 258 | 50.0% |
| Overs Δ≥5 | 363 | 165 | 45.5% |
| Unders Δ≤-5 | 249 | 123 | 49.4% |
Variance / Pace
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low SD ≤25.6 | 593 | 281 | 47.4% |
| Slow ≤98.3 | 592 | 293 | 49.5% |
| Fast >98.3 | 584 | 289 | 49.5% |
| High SD >25.6 | 583 | 301 | 51.6% |