MLB • Season Tracking
Model Performance
Season-to-date accuracy for Dr Cover's MLB model — winner picks, run lines, totals, and expected value splits. Updated nightly after results are graded.
Sides (Winners)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 648 | 358 | 55.2% |
| Mkt agree | 485 | 272 | 56.1% |
| Home picks | 418 | 239 | 57.2% |
| Fav (>55%) | 353 | 197 | 55.8% |
| Conf 50–55% | 295 | 161 | 54.6% |
| Conf 55–65% | 286 | 151 | 52.8% |
| Away picks | 230 | 119 | 51.7% |
| Mkt disagree | 161 | 85 | 52.8% |
| Conf 65–75% | 64 | 46 | 71.9% |
| Conf >75% | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
Run Lines (ATS)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 643 | 321 | 49.9% |
| Picking fav (-1.5) | 348 | 140 | 40.2% |
| Away picks | 328 | 162 | 49.4% |
| Home picks | 313 | 158 | 50.5% |
| Picking dog (+1.5) | 295 | 181 | 61.4% |
| RL odds +100+ | 277 | 126 | 45.5% |
| RL odds ≤-150 | 246 | 135 | 54.9% |
| RL odds -120 to -149 | 94 | 47 | 50.0% |
Expected Value
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive EV | 398 | 217 | 54.5% |
| Negative EV | 248 | 140 | 56.5% |
| EV >5% | 184 | 104 | 56.5% |
| EV >10% | 58 | 37 | 63.8% |
| EV >15% | 17 | 10 | 58.8% |
| EV >20% | 0 | 0 | — |
Totals (O/U)
| Split | Games | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 623 | 327 | 52.5% |
| Pred unders | 411 | 217 | 52.8% |
| Pred overs | 212 | 110 | 51.9% |
| Unders Δ≤-1.5 | 134 | 81 | 60.4% |
| Overs Δ≥1.5 | 63 | 30 | 47.6% |
| Strong conviction Δ≥2.5 | 40 | 19 | 47.5% |