MLB · Pitcher Projections

Pitcher Accuracy

Track how accurately the model projects innings pitched, runs allowed, and strikeouts for every starting pitcher.

Data: Live Season: 2026 Through: 2026-05-15 Starters: 238
⚾ Innings Pitched n = 1,281
MAE
1.18
Bias
+0.20
5.11 Avg Projected
4.39 Avg Actual
🔥 Runs Allowed n = 1,281
MAE
1.65
Bias
-0.33
2.16 Avg Projected
2.36 Avg Actual
💨 Strikeouts n = 1,281
MAE
2.05
Bias
+0.15
4.78 Avg Projected
4.18 Avg Actual
Performance by Team
Team Starts MAE Bias
Cincinnati Reds 45 1.13 -0.03
Cleveland Guardians 45 1.02 +0.26
Seattle Mariners 45 0.79 -0.38
Atlanta Braves 45 0.91 +0.11
Minnesota Twins 44 1.08 -0.19
Athletics 44 0.71 +0.18
Philadelphia Phillies 44 0.91 +0.26
St. Louis Cardinals 44 1.01 +0.39
Toronto Blue Jays 44 1.20 +0.57
Los Angeles Angels 44 1.70 -0.31
Kansas City Royals 44 1.04 -0.21
Houston Astros 44 1.36 +0.06
Miami Marlins 43 1.12 +0.11
Detroit Tigers 43 1.49 +1.03
San Francisco Giants 43 0.79 -0.07
New York Yankees 42 1.37 -0.43
Washington Nationals 42 1.02 +0.21
San Diego Padres 42 1.12 -0.01
Colorado Rockies 42 1.33 +0.77
Arizona Diamondbacks 42 1.25 +0.13
Baltimore Orioles 42 0.99 +0.30
Chicago White Sox 42 1.82 +1.06
Los Angeles Dodgers 42 1.40 -0.37
New York Mets 41 1.31 +0.42
Texas Rangers 41 1.06 -0.27
Pittsburgh Pirates 41 1.78 +1.17
Boston Red Sox 41 1.23 +0.44
Tampa Bay Rays 41 1.47 +0.51
Chicago Cubs 41 0.94 +0.03
Milwaukee Brewers 38 1.25 +0.50
Performance by Pitcher
Pitcher GS Proj Actual MAE Bias
Andrew Abbott C Cincinnati Reds 10 5.46 4.97 0.85 +0.49
Joe Ryan C Minnesota Twins 10 5.55 5.02 1.18 +0.53
Tanner Bibee C Cleveland Guardians 10 5.43 5.06 0.86 +0.37
Aaron Civale D Athletics 9 5.44 5.06 0.48 +0.38
Aaron Nola C Philadelphia Phillies 9 5.15 4.87 0.85 +0.29
Bailey Ober C Minnesota Twins 9 5.21 5.70 1.08 -0.49
Brady Singer D Cincinnati Reds 9 4.89 4.51 1.19 +0.37
Bryan Woo C Seattle Mariners 9 5.90 5.89 0.84 +0.01
Bryce Elder D Atlanta Braves 9 5.19 5.87 0.88 -0.67
Cam Schlittler C New York Yankees 9 4.16 5.84 1.69 -1.69
Chase Burns C Cincinnati Reds 9 5.22 5.81 0.71 -0.59
Chris Sale C Atlanta Braves 9 5.91 6.11 0.63 -0.21
Clay Holmes D New York Mets 9 4.87 5.64 0.92 -0.78
Cristopher Sánchez B Philadelphia Phillies 9 5.93 6.04 0.70 -0.12
Dustin May D St. Louis Cardinals 9 5.49 5.36 0.83 +0.13
Dylan Cease C Toronto Blue Jays 9 4.88 5.71 1.02 -0.83
Emerson Hancock D Seattle Mariners 9 5.16 5.91 0.78 -0.75
Eury Pérez C Miami Marlins 9 4.59 5.23 0.90 -0.64
Foster Griffin C Washington Nationals 9 4.44 5.59 1.44 -1.15
Framber Valdez C Detroit Tigers 9 5.81 5.48 0.87 +0.34
Gavin Williams D Cleveland Guardians 9 5.10 6.04 1.00 -0.94
George Kirby C Seattle Mariners 9 5.26 6.18 1.00 -0.91
Jack Kochanowicz F Los Angeles Angels 9 4.45 5.52 1.28 -1.07
Jake Irvin D Washington Nationals 9 5.00 4.69 0.38 +0.31
Jeffrey Springs D Athletics 9 5.42 5.37 0.84 +0.05
Jesús Luzardo C Philadelphia Phillies 9 5.54 5.31 1.00 +0.23
Joey Cantillo C Cleveland Guardians 9 6.66 4.86 1.80 +1.80
Kevin Gausman C Toronto Blue Jays 9 5.86 5.52 0.55 +0.34
Logan Gilbert B Seattle Mariners 9 4.95 5.48 0.75 -0.53
Luis Severino D Athletics 9 5.09 5.28 0.68 -0.19
MacKenzie Gore C Texas Rangers 9 4.88 5.18 0.83 -0.30
Matthew Liberatore D St. Louis Cardinals 9 4.86 5.14 0.67 -0.29
Max Meyer D Miami Marlins 9 5.18 5.17 0.40 +0.02
Michael King D San Diego Padres 9 4.61 5.60 0.99 -0.99
Michael Lorenzen D Colorado Rockies 9 5.02 4.62 0.95 +0.40
Michael McGreevy D St. Louis Cardinals 9 5.53 5.60 0.56 -0.07
Michael Wacha C Kansas City Royals 9 5.20 6.34 1.22 -1.14
Mike Burrows D Houston Astros 9 4.75 5.41 0.81 -0.66
Mitch Keller D Pittsburgh Pirates 9 5.23 5.80 0.93 -0.57
Nolan McLean C New York Mets 9 5.90 5.71 0.84 +0.18
Randy Vásquez D San Diego Padres 9 4.88 5.49 0.81 -0.61
Reid Detmers C Los Angeles Angels 9 3.01 5.22 2.22 -2.22
Robbie Ray D San Francisco Giants 9 5.51 5.41 0.60 +0.10
Ryne Nelson C Arizona Diamondbacks 9 6.30 4.69 1.76 +1.61
Sandy Alcantara D Miami Marlins 9 5.21 6.36 1.44 -1.14
Seth Lugo D Kansas City Royals 9 5.16 5.72 0.89 -0.56
Shane Baz D Baltimore Orioles 9 5.14 5.44 0.55 -0.30
Slade Cecconi D Cleveland Guardians 9 5.40 4.84 0.70 +0.55
Tyler Mahle D San Francisco Giants 9 5.11 5.06 0.51 +0.06
Will Warren C New York Yankees 9 4.56 5.00 1.05 -0.44
Adrian Houser D San Francisco Giants 8 5.51 4.99 0.74 +0.52
Andre Pallante D St. Louis Cardinals 8 4.85 5.26 0.42 -0.42
Braxton Ashcraft C Pittsburgh Pirates 8 7.23 5.84 1.40 +1.40
Bubba Chandler C Pittsburgh Pirates 8 7.24 4.79 2.46 +2.46
Cade Cavalli D Washington Nationals 8 4.58 4.44 1.12 +0.14
Cole Ragans C Kansas City Royals 8 4.52 4.30 1.49 +0.22
Connelly Early C Boston Red Sox 8 4.58 5.04 0.91 -0.46
Drew Rasmussen C Tampa Bay Rays 8 4.67 5.28 0.98 -0.61
Eduardo Rodriguez D Arizona Diamondbacks 8 4.81 5.91 1.26 -1.11
Edward Cabrera C Chicago Cubs 8 4.89 5.45 0.74 -0.57
Freddy Peralta C New York Mets 8 5.21 5.34 0.47 -0.13
Grant Holmes C Atlanta Braves 8 5.17 5.05 0.76 +0.12
Jack Flaherty C Detroit Tigers 8 4.90 4.09 1.19 +0.81
Jack Leiter D Texas Rangers 8 4.77 5.58 0.95 -0.81
Jacob Lopez D Athletics 8 5.07 4.80 0.32 +0.27
Jameson Taillon D Chicago Cubs 8 5.09 5.56 0.69 -0.47
Janson Junk C Miami Marlins 8 6.52 5.33 1.34 +1.20
José Soriano D Los Angeles Angels 8 5.17 6.05 1.27 -0.88
Kris Bubic C Kansas City Royals 8 5.56 5.53 0.94 +0.03
Kyle Bradish C Baltimore Orioles 8 5.19 5.16 0.95 +0.03
Kyle Freeland C Colorado Rockies 8 4.88 4.06 1.23 +0.81
Kyle Harrison C Milwaukee Brewers 8 5.54 4.78 0.99 +0.77
Kyle Leahy D St. Louis Cardinals 8 7.57 4.90 2.67 +2.67
Landen Roupp D San Francisco Giants 8 4.57 5.45 1.11 -0.88
Luis Castillo C Seattle Mariners 8 5.24 4.94 0.68 +0.30
Max Fried C New York Yankees 8 5.89 6.05 1.23 -0.16
Michael Soroka C Arizona Diamondbacks 8 4.87 5.30 0.91 -0.43
Nathan Eovaldi C Texas Rangers 8 5.51 5.90 1.21 -0.39
Nick Martinez D Tampa Bay Rays 8 6.10 5.81 0.99 +0.29
Parker Messick C Cleveland Guardians 8 5.28 5.85 0.73 -0.57
Ranger Suarez C Boston Red Sox 8 5.83 5.43 1.50 +0.41
Rhett Lowder D Cincinnati Reds 8 4.42 4.68 1.93 -0.26
Ryan Weathers C New York Yankees 8 4.65 5.45 1.31 -0.80
Shane McClanahan D Tampa Bay Rays 8 4.02 4.81 0.83 -0.80
Shota Imanaga C Chicago Cubs 8 5.46 6.14 0.88 -0.67
Simeon Woods Richardson D Minnesota Twins 8 4.84 4.56 0.71 +0.28
Taj Bradley D Minnesota Twins 8 4.90 5.79 1.07 -0.89
Tomoyuki Sugano D Colorado Rockies 8 4.67 5.08 0.64 -0.41
Walker Buehler D San Diego Padres 8 4.79 4.34 1.13 +0.46
Zac Gallen D Arizona Diamondbacks 8 5.48 4.70 1.04 +0.78
Andrew Painter C Philadelphia Phillies 7 5.01 4.50 1.40 +0.51
Anthony Kay D Chicago White Sox 7 5.17 4.66 1.67 +0.52
Carmen Mlodzinski C Pittsburgh Pirates 7 7.61 4.56 3.05 +3.05
Chris Bassitt D Baltimore Orioles 7 5.18 4.37 1.14 +0.81
Davis Martin D Chicago White Sox 7 5.45 6.30 1.01 -0.85
Emmet Sheehan C Los Angeles Dodgers 7 5.85 4.83 1.15 +1.02
J.T. Ginn D Athletics 7 5.14 5.06 1.14 +0.09
Jacob Misiorowski C Milwaukee Brewers 7 4.59 5.61 1.02 -1.02
Jacob deGrom C Texas Rangers 7 5.55 5.36 0.93 +0.19
Jose Quintana D Colorado Rockies 7 5.04 4.66 0.85 +0.38
Keider Montero D Detroit Tigers 7 6.97 5.24 1.72 +1.72
Kumar Rocker D Texas Rangers 7 4.21 4.74 1.21 -0.53
Logan Webb C San Francisco Giants 7 5.92 6.14 0.77 -0.23
Noah Cameron D Kansas City Royals 7 5.45 4.93 0.72 +0.52
Patrick Corbin D Toronto Blue Jays 7 4.86 4.67 0.46 +0.19
Paul Skenes C Pittsburgh Pirates 7 5.61 6.01 1.20 -0.40
Roki Sasaki D Los Angeles Dodgers 7 4.14 4.74 0.66 -0.60
Sean Burke D Chicago White Sox 7 5.64 4.90 0.86 +0.74
Steven Matz D Tampa Bay Rays 7 7.50 5.30 2.20 +2.20
Tarik Skubal C Detroit Tigers 7 5.97 6.06 0.61 -0.08
Tyler Glasnow C Los Angeles Dodgers 7 4.93 5.60 1.75 -0.67
Yoshinobu Yamamoto C Los Angeles Dodgers 7 5.60 6.19 0.78 -0.59
Yusei Kikuchi D Los Angeles Angels 7 5.11 4.33 1.01 +0.78
Brandon Williamson D Cincinnati Reds 6 3.85 4.43 1.39 -0.59
Brayan Bello D Boston Red Sox 6 5.37 3.97 1.64 +1.40
Casey Mize C Detroit Tigers 6 4.95 4.93 1.22 +0.01
Chris Paddack D Miami Marlins 6 5.16 4.10 1.35 +1.06
Colin Rea D Chicago Cubs 6 5.48 4.77 0.96 +0.72
Eric Lauer C Toronto Blue Jays 6 6.39 4.23 2.16 +2.16
Erick Fedde D Chicago White Sox 6 5.36 5.07 0.86 +0.29
Justin Wrobleski C Los Angeles Dodgers 6 7.57 6.70 1.19 +0.87
Lance McCullers Jr. D Houston Astros 6 3.86 4.72 1.37 -0.86
Merrill Kelly C Arizona Diamondbacks 6 5.30 5.72 1.37 -0.42
Miles Mikolas D Washington Nationals 6 4.79 4.05 0.89 +0.74
Noah Schultz C Chicago White Sox 6 4.79 4.73 1.16 +0.06
Shohei Ohtani A Los Angeles Dodgers 6 3.32 6.33 3.01 -3.01
Sonny Gray B Boston Red Sox 6 5.24 5.18 0.85 +0.06
Spencer Arrighetti D Houston Astros 6 4.87 5.88 1.02 -1.02
Trevor Rogers C Baltimore Orioles 6 5.72 5.37 0.81 +0.35
Zack Littell D Washington Nationals 6 5.41 4.70 0.91 +0.71
Brandon Sproat D Milwaukee Brewers 5 4.85 4.48 1.02 +0.37
Brandon Woodruff B Milwaukee Brewers 5 5.30 4.86 1.40 +0.44
Chad Patrick C Milwaukee Brewers 5 4.95 4.68 0.81 +0.27
David Peterson D New York Mets 5 5.22 4.48 0.74 +0.74
Garrett Crochet B Boston Red Sox 5 6.22 4.66 1.56 +1.56
Germán Márquez D San Diego Padres 5 4.44 4.84 1.00 -0.40
Martín Pérez D Atlanta Braves 5 5.14 5.24 0.26 -0.10
Max Scherzer C Toronto Blue Jays 5 4.81 3.64 2.05 +1.17
Peter Lambert D Houston Astros 5 5.04 5.82 1.26 -0.78
Reynaldo López C Atlanta Braves 5 4.99 4.24 1.21 +0.75
Brandon Young D Baltimore Orioles 4 4.70 5.33 0.73 -0.63
Christian Scott C New York Mets 4 3.69 3.63 2.00 +0.07
Connor Prielipp C Minnesota Twins 4 4.50 4.75 0.85 -0.25
Grant Taylor B Chicago White Sox 4 7.72 1.25 6.47 +6.47
JR Ritchie C Atlanta Braves 4 5.56 5.30 1.16 +0.26
Luis Gil D New York Yankees 4 4.83 4.78 0.89 +0.06
Matthew Boyd C Chicago Cubs 4 5.43 4.85 0.83 +0.58
Nick Pivetta C San Diego Padres 4 5.61 4.00 1.61 +1.61
Payton Tolle C Boston Red Sox 4 5.13 5.55 0.99 -0.42
Ryan Feltner D Colorado Rockies 4 4.71 3.83 1.40 +0.88
Taijuan Walker F Philadelphia Phillies 4 5.19 4.55 0.65 +0.64
Tatsuya Imai C Houston Astros 4 3.52 2.88 1.75 +0.64
Trey Yesavage C Toronto Blue Jays 4 4.78 4.78 0.67 0.00
Zack Wheeler C Philadelphia Phillies 4 5.73 6.05 0.42 -0.32
Brandon Pfaadt C Arizona Diamondbacks 3 5.21 5.40 0.87 -0.19
Cade Povich D Baltimore Orioles 3 5.08 4.40 1.48 +0.68
Cody Bolton C Houston Astros 3 3.02 2.40 1.33 +0.62
Cristian Javier D Houston Astros 3 4.11 2.80 1.40 +1.31
Griffin Canning D San Diego Padres 3 4.79 3.43 1.35 +1.35
Griffin Jax C Tampa Bay Rays 3 7.50 3.73 3.77 +3.77
Javier Assad D Chicago Cubs 3 4.83 4.83 0.43 0.00
Joe Boyle C Tampa Bay Rays 3 5.42 5.07 0.69 +0.35
Kodai Senga D New York Mets 3 4.84 4.43 1.33 +0.40
Logan Henderson C Milwaukee Brewers 3 5.13 4.33 1.37 +0.79
Matt Waldron C San Diego Padres 3 4.35 4.40 1.41 -0.05
Mick Abel D Minnesota Twins 3 4.47 5.67 1.53 -1.19
PJ Poulin D Washington Nationals 3 2.97 1.07 1.90 +1.90
Spencer Strider C Atlanta Braves 3 5.09 4.73 1.05 +0.35
Walbert Urena C Los Angeles Angels 3 5.25 4.73 2.54 +0.52
Brenan Hanifee C Detroit Tigers 2 2.99 0.60 2.39 +2.39
Brennan Bernardino D Colorado Rockies 2 6.88 0.20 6.68 +6.68
Brent Suter C Los Angeles Angels 2 7.15 1.60 5.55 +5.55
Bryan Hudson D Chicago White Sox 2 2.99 1.00 1.99 +1.99
Cade Horton C Chicago Cubs 2 5.30 3.55 2.57 +1.75
Coleman Crow C Milwaukee Brewers 2 5.23 5.05 0.18 +0.18
Dean Kremer C Baltimore Orioles 2 5.27 5.50 0.43 -0.24
Elmer Rodríguez C New York Yankees 2 4.54 4.10 0.73 +0.44
George Klassen C Los Angeles Angels 2 4.11 2.10 2.01 +2.01
Huascar Brazobán C New York Mets 2 7.47 1.00 6.47 +6.47
Hunter Brown C Houston Astros 2 5.45 5.10 0.78 +0.35
Jake Bennett C Boston Red Sox 2 4.98 5.05 0.27 -0.07
Jesse Scholtens D Tampa Bay Rays 2 2.98 4.70 1.72 -1.72
Jimmy Herget C Colorado Rockies 2 2.99 1.00 1.99 +1.99
Jovani Morán D Boston Red Sox 2 2.93 1.00 1.93 +1.93
Kai-Wei Teng C Houston Astros 2 3.89 3.00 0.89 +0.89
Luis Morales D Athletics 2 4.97 3.55 1.42 +1.42
Mason Montgomery C Pittsburgh Pirates 2 2.95 1.00 1.95 +1.95
Nick Lodolo B Cincinnati Reds 2 5.13 4.55 0.58 +0.58
Ryan Weiss C Houston Astros 2 4.91 3.15 1.98 +1.76
Shane Smith D Chicago White Sox 2 4.80 3.10 1.70 +1.70
Stephen Kolek C Kansas City Royals 2 5.33 5.10 1.06 +0.23
Trevor McDonald B San Francisco Giants 2 6.09 6.05 1.86 +0.04
Tyler Holton D Detroit Tigers 2 7.54 0.60 6.94 +6.94
Walbert Ureña D Los Angeles Angels 2 5.10 5.50 0.49 -0.41
Aaron Ashby B Milwaukee Brewers 1 7.88 2.10 5.78 +5.78
Andrew Morris C Minnesota Twins 1 3.01 1.00 2.01 +2.01
Ben Brown B Chicago Cubs 1 6.76 4.00 2.76 +2.76
Blake Snell C Los Angeles Dodgers 1 5.23 3.00 2.23 +2.23
Bradgley Rodriguez D San Diego Padres 1 2.99 1.00 1.99 +1.99
Braxton Garrett C Miami Marlins 1 5.28 1.10 4.18 +4.18
Braydon Fisher C Toronto Blue Jays 1 7.61 1.00 6.61 +6.61
Bryce Miller C Seattle Mariners 1 5.12 5.10 0.02 +0.02
Burch Smith B Detroit Tigers 1 2.95 0.10 2.85 +2.85
Carlos Rodón C New York Yankees 1 5.16 4.10 1.06 +1.06
Chase Dollander D Colorado Rockies 1 4.54 5.20 0.66 -0.66
Chase Petty C Cincinnati Reds 1 5.10 5.20 0.10 -0.10
Cody Ponce C Toronto Blue Jays 1 3.01 2.10 0.91 +0.91
Colton Gordon D Houston Astros 1 5.79 3.20 2.59 +2.59
DL Hall D Milwaukee Brewers 1 7.37 2.00 5.37 +5.37
Didier Fuentes C Atlanta Braves 1 5.30 3.00 2.30 +2.30
Hunter Dobbins C St. Louis Cardinals 1 5.20 4.10 1.10 +1.10
Ian Seymour C Tampa Bay Rays 1 7.59 2.00 5.59 +5.59
Jacob Latz D Texas Rangers 1 6.68 4.00 2.68 +2.68
Jakob Junis C Texas Rangers 1 3.01 2.20 0.81 +0.81
Jordan Leasure D Chicago White Sox 1 7.36 1.10 6.26 +6.26
José Suarez D Atlanta Braves 1 7.32 3.20 4.12 +4.12
Juan Mejia D Colorado Rockies 1 2.98 0.20 2.78 +2.78
Justin Verlander D Detroit Tigers 1 4.98 3.20 1.78 +1.78
Keegan Akin D Baltimore Orioles 1 6.84 1.00 5.84 +5.84
Kyle Backhus C Philadelphia Phillies 1 2.92 1.00 1.92 +1.92
Luinder Avila C Kansas City Royals 1 2.94 3.00 0.06 -0.06
Mason Englert C Tampa Bay Rays 1 3.01 3.20 0.19 -0.19
Mason Fluharty D Toronto Blue Jays 1 2.98 1.00 1.98 +1.98
Paul Blackburn D New York Yankees 1 7.51 1.00 6.51 +6.51
Richard Lovelady C Washington Nationals 1 3.03 2.00 1.03 +1.03
Riley Martin C Chicago Cubs 1 2.98 1.00 1.98 +1.98
Robby Snelling C Miami Marlins 1 5.29 5.00 0.29 +0.29
Ryan Johnson C Los Angeles Angels 1 2.89 3.10 0.21 -0.21
Sam Aldegheri C Los Angeles Angels 1 6.09 4.00 2.09 +2.09
Shane Drohan C Milwaukee Brewers 1 2.91 2.20 0.71 +0.71
Spencer Miles C Toronto Blue Jays 1 3.01 3.00 0.01 +0.01
Steven Okert C Houston Astros 1 7.17 0.20 6.97 +6.97
Tim Mayza D Philadelphia Phillies 1 2.95 2.00 0.95 +0.95
Tobias Myers D New York Mets 1 7.39 2.00 5.39 +5.39
Trey Gibson C Baltimore Orioles 1 4.93 4.20 0.73 +0.73
Will Klein C Los Angeles Dodgers 1 2.95 2.00 0.95 +0.95
Zach Eflin D Baltimore Orioles 1 4.80 3.20 1.60 +1.60
Zebby Matthews C Minnesota Twins 1 5.25 7.00 1.75 -1.75