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From the research desk

April 7, 2026

MLB April 6: Totals Were the Clear Strength

The totals card held up best, while straight-up and run line results both slipped below .500. April 6 was strongest on totals. The model finished 8-5 there, and that was the cleanest part of the board by a clear margin. Overs cashed in Brewers-Red Sox, Dodgers-Blue Jays, and Astros-Rockies, while unders came through in Reds-Marlins, […]

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April 6, 2026

MLB April 4: Plus-Money Wins Helped Drive the Day

Straight-up picks were the clearest strength, with totals close behind and run lines a little less clean. The clearest takeaway from April 4 was how well the moneyline card held up. The model finished 10-4 straight up, and that result was not built only on favorites doing their job. The White Sox won outright at […]

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April 5, 2026

MLB April 4: Underdog Moneylines Led the Way

Straight-up results were the clearest strength, even as other areas showed more variance. The clearest takeaway from Saturday was how cleanly the moneyline card performed. The model went 11-4 straight up, consistently landing on the right side of outcomes across the board. Crucially, this success wasn’t just built on heavy favorites; the edge showed up […]

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April 4, 2026

MLB Model Recap: April 3, 2026

High Efficiency in Straight-Up Results Contrasts with Spread Volatility The model delivered a strong performance in straight-up (SU) outcomes yesterday, correctly identifying 11 winners out of 14 games. This 78.6% win rate was bolstered by heavy favorites like the Dodgers and Phillies delivering as expected, alongside successful underdog calls on the Athletics and White Sox. […]

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April 3, 2026

New MLB Hub, Team Trends, and Picks Page Enhancements at OddsRX

We’ve made a few important upgrades to the MLB section at OddsRX to make it easier to navigate, easier to understand, and more useful on a daily basis. The goal is simple: make it faster to find what matters, understand how the model is performing, and see meaningful team context without digging through multiple pages. […]

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March 30, 2026

NBA Model Performance Update: What I’m Looking At Now

When I wrote my last NBA model performance post in early January, the season sample was still relatively small and I was mostly trying to answer a simple question: is the model showing enough signal to keep trusting it?   Now the sample is much larger, and the answer is more nuanced. As of March 27, 2026, […]

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March 29, 2026

How V3 compares to the public model

One thing I’m also watching behind the scenes is how Version 3 is stacking up against the public Version 1 results on the site. So far, V3 looks very comparable on straight-up winners, hitting 61.5% in my current tracking sample versus 61.8% for Version 1 on the live OddsRX performance page. Where V3 has not stood out yet is against the spread, where it […]

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February 25, 2026

We Tested a New Model. It Was Worse. Here’s What We Learned.

At OddsRX, we don’t just build models and assume they work. We test them in the open, track every prediction, and let the data decide. This is a recap of our V2 model experiment — what we changed, what the numbers said, and why we’re shutting it down in favor of something better. Why We […]

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