Value & stake
Expected Value Calculator
Compare your win-probability estimate with the offered price to calculate expected profit.
How to read your result
Expected value is the average net result over many comparable bets if your probability estimate is accurate. It does not predict the result of a single bet.
A $100 stake at +120 with a 50% win probability has an expected net profit of $10 and an expected ROI of 10%.
Formula and assumptions
EV = p × profit if won − (1 − p) × stake. Expected ROI = EV ÷ stake. Probability p is your estimate, not automatically the market’s implied probability. Assumes a win or a loss; no pushes, taxes, fees or promotions.